Carbon dioxide removal efforts are not meeting the levels required to limit global warming, scientists stated this week. Political instability and ongoing conflicts have further slowed progress on climate solutions.
In 2023, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques captured only 2 million tonnes of CO₂ out of more than 40 billion tonnes emitted by humans as their growth stagnated.
Political and economic barriers stall progress
The slowdown coincides with a shift in global focus toward geopolitical crises, including the war in the Middle East and rising tensions between the U.S. and China.
Existing removal methods, such as direct air capture, enhanced weathering, and reforestation, remain costly and energy-intensive. Most projects operate in Europe and North America.
India’s energy mix, for instance, still relies heavily on coal, which supplied 62% of electricity during a recent heatwave that set new demand records. Solar provided 22%, while wind and hydropower contributed 5% each. The country has committed to increasing clean energy to 60% of capacity by 2030 but must reconcile economic growth with emissions reductions.
Energy shocks accelerate shifts—but not always toward renewables
The conflict in Iran has driven fuel prices up sharply, with crude oil rising 50% since the start of the war. While higher costs have increased electric vehicle sales in Asia, they have also pushed poorer households in India back to wood and coal for cooking. Black-market LPG cylinder prices have climbed, making cleaner alternatives inaccessible for millions.
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The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that the crisis could transform global energy systems but cautioned that the transition would not be seamless. “The architecture of the worldwide energy system will change,” the agency’s chief said. “But the outcome depends on government actions.”
Meanwhile, China has criticized U.S. restrictions on its access to advanced semiconductor technology, which it requires for AI and other high-tech industries. Huawei announced this week that its latest chipmaking advancement could circumvent U.S. export controls, though analysts question whether it can be scaled effectively.
For small island nations like Tuvalu, the consequences are severe. The Pacific country, already struggling with rising sea levels and ocean acidification, recently faced criticism over its climate fund’s connections to fossil fuel investments. The finding highlighted the challenges of ensuring financial flows align with climate objectives, even in regions most threatened by warming.
Some developments offer hope. Japan and the U.S. are collaborating to explore deep-sea rare earth deposits, aiming to reduce dependence on China for critical minerals. In Europe, carbon removal startups are testing new approaches, though most remain in early stages.
The difference between current removal rates and what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target remains enormous. Scientists estimate that by 2030, annual CO₂ removal must reach at least 1 billion tonnes. Last year’s total fell far short of that goal.
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