XRP’s price has fallen to $1.28 after the Senate voted against the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, with a decline of 9.4% over 24 hours. This drop is nearly eight times the decline of bitcoin, which fell 3.8% over the same period.
The token’s market capitalization is currently $80.79 billion, with 63.1 billion circulating tokens. Trading volume has surged 41.2% to $6.49 billion over 24 hours, indicating that the move was driven by real selling rather than thin-liquidity drift.
XRP’s investment case has been closely tied to its regulatory status, and the failure of the Clarity Act has hit the token harder than other large-cap digital assets. The bill would have created a federal framework for digital assets and formally separated digital commodities from securities in federal statute.
However, XRP’s commodity classification did not disappear with the bill’s failure. The SEC and CFTC had previously classified XRP as one of 16 digital commodities in a joint interpretive document issued on March 17, 2026. This guidance remains in force, allowing XRP to trade on U.S. exchanges and institutions to hold the token.
The key fact for the forecast is that XRP’s commodity classification did not disappear on Tuesday. The March 17 guidance is an administrative document that any future administration could reverse. Large institutional allocators had been waiting for statutory certainty before committing capital at scale.
Prediction-market odds of the bill becoming law in 2026 collapsed to 5% after the vote, down from 33% on September 14. The collapse in prediction-market odds tracks XRP’s price path through 2026, showing how much of the token’s valuation rested on legislative hope.
XRP’s price moved in lockstep with those odds, with a $0.21 decline for a 28-point drop in probability. On that ratio, each 10 percentage points of enactment probability was worth $0.075 per token, or $4.73 billion in market capitalization.
Spot XRP ETFs logged zero net flows on September 15, in contrast to the $450.33 million that left bitcoin ETFs and the $141.47 million that left ether ETFs on the same day. This suggests that XRP ETF investors are long-horizon allocators who view the March 17 commodity classification as sufficient.
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The flow rate has cooled sharply from early 2026, with cumulative inflows of $1.55 billion equal to 19% of pre-launch projections. Estimates of billions of dollars in additional institutional inflows following Clarity Act passage were explicitly conditioned on statutory commodity classification.
XRP’s Technical Damage
XRP lost the $1.31–$1.35 support band and now trades below the long-term daily moving average near $1.35. It is testing a cluster of rising moving averages between $1.25 and $1.29. A reclaim of $1.35 opens a run back to $1.43 and $1.49, a 16.4% gain.
A daily close below $1.25 exposes $1.20 and the $1.10 support zone, a 14.1% decline. The Federal Reserve decision at 2:00 p.m. ET decides which comes first. Buyers stepped in at $1.27, preventing an immediate slide toward $1.20.
On-Chain Supply
XRP reserves on Binance, Upbit, and Bithumb have fallen by roughly 240 million tokens since late May. At $1.28, that equals $307 million in XRP moved off exchanges into self-custody, ETF custody, or institutional holdings.
Whale behavior has diverged from retail and ETF flows, with large holders buying while smaller participants stepped back. The late-August rally showed how quickly the supply dynamic can flip, with XRP rallying 70% in three days to $1.66 before pulling back to $1.44.
Futures activity has amplified volatility, with a spike in leveraged XRP futures trading on September 15 increasing market risk heading into the vote. Institutional long exposure in futures rose even as taker and smart-money indicators stayed bearish in early September.
Ripple’s escrow releases add a supply variable, with traders watching for any official statement regarding escrow releases. The volume signature on Tuesday confirms that the decline was driven by genuine selling, with a 41.2% increase in 24-hour trading volume to $6.49 billion coinciding with the drop to $1.27.
After the vote, volume cooled as XRP stabilized near $1.28, a sign that selling pressure was fading rather than accelerating. The token is now down 9.5% for the week, though still up 29% over 30 days.
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